James Montier resource page with a huge collection of articles and Prior to that , he was the co-Head of Global Strategy at Société Générale and has been the. James Montier, GMO. James is a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team. Prior to joining GMO in , he was co-head of Global Strategy at Société Générale. I met James Montier at a value investment seminar in Italy in Montier ride again motions James Montier leaving Societe Generale to.
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Here he comes up with a collection of his best books in different categories classics, modern, psychological and hidden gems that is arguably the best reading list for any aspiring investor. At the Value Investing Congress incopies of the book were handed out to all partcipants. He found, unsurprisingly, that only a very small minority shows the required level of strategic thinking to beat the gun. James wrote that fifteen stocks in the U. Past results are impressive in identifying under-performing companies.
He found that on average professional investors are using between one and two steps of strategic thinking in forming their expectations. Because such markets lack fundamental support, they are liable to precipitous declines. It makes no sense to forecast, the importance of a margin of safety, avoid trying to time the market and buy cheap insurance.
To us, the current market environment is largely a greater fool market. He points out that this is why they are all overoptimistic and how you can avoid falling into the same trap. We evolved in a very different environment, and it is that ancestral evolutionary environment that governs the way in which we think and feel.
James Montier presents even more evidence that humans cannot forecast and why you should avoid listening to anyone who says he can as well as avoid it yourself. If nothing fit the criteria for investing, then cash was the default option.
An enormous amount of evidence suggests that investors are generally hopeless at forecasting. James Montier makes a strong argument that the mess in the US economy and housing market was not caused by a black swan event unpredictable but rather was sadly predictable. You can also find it under Current Value Investors. James was kind enough to put me on his distribution list and I really looked forward to each of his articles as they always taught me something.
He identifies shorting candidates through a measurement called the M score. The problems experienced by the quant funds in August may help highlight some of these issues.
Montier quits SocGen for hedge fund | Reuters
We had long discussions later the day and into the evening on value investing and montisr strategy. Subscribe to ValueWalk Newsletter. In the article he explains a simple short screen with surprising results shown through back testing in the USA and Europe.
Montier is the author of four market-leading books: Or, Ten Lessons Not Learnt from the financial crisis. Its societw great summary of a lot of his previous work in a presentation format, summarised in bullet points and graphs. He argues that investors focusing on sectors rather than stocks are barking up the wrong tree.
Value plus quality seems to make sense.
James Montier | Value Invest
Send me ocassional third party offers Yes No. The Advent of A Cynical Bubble James Montier explores the nature and underlying psychology of four different kinds of bubbles.
Give it a try! For example he writes that the first sin was placing forecasting at the very heart of the investment process.
We respect your privacy no spam ever. James Montier explains why the efficient markets theory is dead but still lives because of academic inertia.
James Montier Resource Page
The details of each bubble are different but the general patterns remain very similar. But most importantly, humility should be the central theme of a good investment process. How right he was. James Montier, in his usual style puts himself against the common view saying that the then biggest consensus portfolio bets to him seemed to be small cap and low quality however large cap, high quality looks like the better bet to him.
At the link above you can read parts of the book at Google Books. Unfortunately James decreased his writings since taking a position with the asset manager GMO in In this paper James explores the evolutionary basis of each of these roots. James Montier writes about the whether company visits are useful for fund managers.
The answer in general is no but they can be improved by learning to look for evidence that disagrees with us, and seek to disprove our ideas, rather than illustrate them with supportive evidence.